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The Consumer Confidence Index, as measured and reported by the Conference Board of New York, slipped slightly in January after hitting a record high in December. This may be somewhat due to consumers settling in after the November elections.
Although the Expectations Index fell to 99.8 from 106.4, the Present Situation Index actually increased to 129.7 from 123.5. So, it appears looking out over the next 6 months consumers ain’t so confident, but they’re pretty comfortable with the way things now stand. Mixed signals…
According to the Conference Board, consumers presently are less optimistic about the outlook for business, jobs, and wages. However, despite this reduced optimism, they remain confident that the economy will continue to expand in the coming months. Huh?
Here are some results of the consumer’s outlook for business conditions from the survey:
- Appraisal of current conditions improved in January
- Assessment of the Labor Markets also improved
- Short-term outlook for business conditions declined
Not surprisingly, the overall outlook for the labor markets was mixed. Those forecasting more jobs in the coming months declined from 21.7% to 19.8%. However, those anticipating fewer jobs remained virtually unchanged.
The big one, the outlook for wages and income:
- Consumers expecting a rise in their income declined 3.5%;
- Those expecting income to decline rose by 1%
There is still a whole lot of uncertainty about the future of the economy, employment and income. Consumers appear to be on the fence, waiting to see what the new Administration will bring to the table. Some are feeling a bit better, others are still a little wary.
Which way will we go? Only time will tell. I just hope that our elected representatives, from the top on down, will put aside their differences and work together for a stronger economy and a better America, for all our sakes.
